Brazil’s Current Account Deficit Likely Narrowed in February
The current account deficit likely narrowed to US$3.9 billion in February, from a deficit of US$5.4 billion in January, but widened compared to a deficit of US$3.3 billion in February 2010. A widening...
View ArticlePolicy Continuity: Most Likely Outcome for Peru Election
Overall, there is a great consensus among the candidates’ proposals (see Figure 1). Most aim to preserve the current macroeconomic policy framework, including: A responsible fiscal policy; an...
View ArticleMexican Inflation to Edge Closer to Target by March
Mexico’s Core CPI Dynamics (y/y, 2w/2w index) Source: Banxico and RGE In RGE’s view, the current inflation result is consistent with our assessment, that prices in Q1 2011 will be closer to the...
View ArticleBrazil: Government Announces New Decree
On March 29, the government announced a new decree in the Official Gazette, increasing the financial-operation tax (IOF) on overseas loans—corporate loans and debt sold abroad by banks and companies....
View ArticleChile: Industrial Output Disappointing; Activity Indicators Robust
Industrial output stayed in negative territory in February; contracting 1.1% m/m (-0.5% m/m in January). On a yearly basis, industrial production decelerated sharply to 1.9% y/y (3.4% y/y 3MMA),...
View ArticleRetail Sector Drives Robust Chilean Growth
Chilean economic activity continued to charge to the upside in March, surprising with a 7.2% y/y (6.76% three-month moving average, 3MMA) gain—markets and RGE were expecting a 6.3% y/y increase....
View ArticleMexican Central Bank Stays On Hold
Mexico’s Monetary Policy Inflation Dynamics (% y/y) Source: Banxico and RGE The cental bank of Mexico (Banxico) stayed on hold at its April meeting—leaving the monetary policy rate at 4.5%, as...
View ArticleFor LatAm, QE3 Impact on Financial Risk Is Key
The Fed’s QE3 will have varying effects by country in LatAm; however, there are a few broad strokes that color the region. QE3 comes at a moment when growth is weak across the board and policy action...
View ArticleWhy Did Brazil Underperform its Peers in 2012? Policy.
The end of Q4 brought forward interesting dynamics in the LatAm region: Namely, a sharp deceleration in inflation in every inflation-targeting economy, with the exception of Brazil (although we...
View ArticleCan Portfolio Flows Play a Dual Role in Brazil in 2013?
Brazil’s current account remained relatively stable in 2012, with a deficit of around 2.4% of GDP, slightly higher than the 2011 deficit of 2.1% of GDP. The CAD was fully funded by FDI, which summed...
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