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Brazil’s Current Account Deficit Likely Narrowed in February

The current account deficit likely narrowed to US$3.9 billion in February, from a deficit of US$5.4 billion in January, but widened compared to a deficit of US$3.3 billion in February 2010. A widening...

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Policy Continuity: Most Likely Outcome for Peru Election

Overall, there is a great consensus among the candidates’ proposals (see Figure 1). Most aim to preserve the current macroeconomic policy framework, including: A responsible fiscal policy; an...

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Mexican Inflation to Edge Closer to Target by March

Mexico’s Core CPI Dynamics (y/y, 2w/2w index)   Source: Banxico and RGE   In RGE’s view, the current inflation result is consistent with our assessment, that prices in Q1 2011 will be closer to the...

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Brazil: Government Announces New Decree

On March 29, the government announced a new decree in the Official Gazette, increasing the financial-operation tax (IOF) on overseas loans—corporate loans and debt sold abroad by banks and companies....

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Chile: Industrial Output Disappointing; Activity Indicators Robust

Industrial output stayed in negative territory in February; contracting 1.1% m/m (-0.5% m/m in January). On a yearly basis, industrial production decelerated sharply to 1.9% y/y (3.4% y/y 3MMA),...

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Retail Sector Drives Robust Chilean Growth

Chilean economic activity continued to charge to the upside in March, surprising with a 7.2% y/y (6.76% three-month moving average, 3MMA) gain—markets and RGE were expecting a 6.3% y/y increase....

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Mexican Central Bank Stays On Hold

Mexico’s Monetary Policy Inflation Dynamics (% y/y) Source: Banxico and RGE The cental bank of Mexico (Banxico) stayed on hold at its April meeting—leaving the monetary policy rate at 4.5%, as...

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For LatAm, QE3 Impact on Financial Risk Is Key

The Fed’s QE3 will have varying effects by country in LatAm; however, there are a few broad strokes that color the region. QE3 comes at a moment when growth is weak across the board and policy action...

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Why Did Brazil Underperform its Peers in 2012? Policy.

The end of Q4 brought forward interesting dynamics in the LatAm region: Namely, a sharp deceleration in inflation in every inflation-targeting economy, with the exception of Brazil (although we...

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Can Portfolio Flows Play a Dual Role in Brazil in 2013?

Brazil’s current account remained relatively stable in 2012, with a deficit of around 2.4% of GDP, slightly higher than the 2011 deficit of 2.1% of GDP. The CAD was fully funded by FDI, which summed...

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